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Harvard Business Review, September 2012
Spotlight
The (Surprisingly) Simple Rules of Strategy
Page 72,

The Science
How Simple Rules Make It Easier to Act
Complex situations create many possible courses of action, which can confound employees on the front line. A recent body of research by psychologists demonstrates that when faced with a superabundance of alternatives, people are afraid of making the wrong choice. As a result they delay decisions, default to the safest option, or avoid choosing altogether...

How Simple Rules Fare Against Complex Models
A growing body of evidence shows that simple rules match or beat more-complicated analysis across a wide range of decisions. Simple rules outperformed state-of-the-art statistical models in forecasting the likelihood that customers would repurchase in two out of three industries(and tried them in the third). They matched sophisticated algorithms in effectiveness at allocating funds across asset classes...

How Simple Rules Differ from Checklists
All firm must balance two conflicting but equally important demands: efficiency(which comes from exploiting standard opportunities) and flexibility(which allows an organization to seize unexpected opportunities). Checklists like the ones that pilots use before takeoff or that surgical teams run through to prepare for an operation are extremely helpful...

DB, SSN057-86-4042,
September 21, 2012, Friday,
National Central Library,
Taipei City